Get started

Search in ideas for "SentiMENT INDEX"

Macro Monday 38 ~ The EU & German ZEW Economic Sentiment IndexMacro Monday 38 The Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index & The German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Released this Tuesday 19th Mar 2024) ZEW is the German acronym for the Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung, which translates to the Centre for European Economic Research. There are two releases from the Centre for European Economic research we will cover today both being released this coming Tuesday; 1. The Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Reading of 25 for Feb 2024) 2. The German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Reading of 19.9 for Feb 2024) EURO AREA ZEW INDEX This index is derived from 350 economists and analysts that operate from and represent the overall European Area. They include economists and analysts from different countries in the Eurozone that are using the Euro as their currency (20 countries out of the 27 members). In summary, while the EU ZEW index provides a broader perspective for the entire eurozone than the German ZEW Index discussed below, the exact methodology for distributing the surveys and their apportionment across individual countries within the eurozone is not explicitly disclosed. Historically, this index has proven very useful as a leading indicator of sentiment for the European Economy and it is closely monitoring for gauging economic sentiment in the EU by market participants. EURO AREA ZEW CHART - SUBJECT CHART ABOVE How to read the chart The index ranges from -100 (pessimism) to +100 (optimism). 0 is neutral however the historical average reading for the EU chart is 21.39 which is the point where the red area meets the green area on the chart. We show on the chart if we are above or below the average levels of optimism. The current reading of 25 indicates current optimism among analysts for the next 6 month The Trend Sentiment made a recovery from -60 in Sept 2022 to +25 in Feb 2024. We have moved from deep in negative sentiment territory to just above the historical average of the chart which is 21.39. GERMAN ZEW INDEX The German ZEW Index data is not derived from all the countries in Europe, it is derived from the views of collection of 350 economists and analysts that operate from and represent the German economy. As Germany is the largest economy within the Euro Area, its performance significantly impacts the overall region and this this metric could be considered the economic sentiment spearhead of Europe. Germany is also the 4th largest economy in the world by nominal GDP. As of 2023, its nominal GDP stands at approximately $4.43 trillion. This index could be monitored as a measure of not only European sentiment but as an important global sentiment gauge. GERMAN ZEW INDEX CHART How to read the chart The index ranges from -100 (pessimism) to +100 (optimism). 0 is neutral however the historical average reading for the German ZEW chart is 20.79 which is the point where the red area meets the green area on the chart. We show on the chart if we are above or below the average levels of optimism. The current reading of 19.9 indicates current optimism among analysts for the next 6 months, however we are below the historical average of 20.79 thus a definitive move above this level this coming Tuesday could be a confirmation step into potential sustained optimism. The Trend Sentiment made a recovery from -61 in Sept 2022 to +19.9 in Feb 2024. We have moved from deep in negative sentiment territory into positive numbers but we are not above the historic average of 20.79 yet. Lets see how both perform this coming Tuesday. The beauty of these charts is that you can review both on my Trading View at any stage, press play and it will update with the most recent release. This way you will have a full explainer of what this dataset is and can keep yourself up to date on its direction with the color coded map, the average line and the neutral line, all of which will at a glance give you a good indication of where we stand in terms of trend and sentiment. I'll keep you informed here too Thanks for coming along PUKA
ECONOMICS:EUESI
by PukaCharts
Sentiment Index UpdateToday I shared a video in my trading room of Tom Lee on CNBC post his CPI massive rally call which didn't materialize. One member pointed out: " Lol. The man in this interview is not “fearless.” He is having trouble getting it out, and he has concerns. He is impressed by the “pronunciation” of this move. " I share the sentiment chart so we can observe the mental psyche of both sides (Bulls and Bears) and how it never changes and just repeats. This sentiment causes buyers and sellers to vote each day through the buys and sells they execute...how they vote, provides us a visual pattern. This pattern is much more forecastable than the internal fundamentals. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
2
Daily Market Update for 2/11Summary: Worries rose this week over the Ukraine conflict's impact on inflation and driving a more hawkish response from the Fed. If you are not ok with the wild ride, hopefully you are on the sidelines. Notes I fat-fingered the date yesterday and then copied it through the entire publishing process. :( Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, February 11, 2022 Facts: -2.78%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 11%, Body: 82% Red Good: Nothing Bad: Long red body, higher volume, low advance/decline, new low for the week Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Mostly red body, short upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: 0.46, more than two declining for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-1.90%), DJI (-1.43%), RUT (-1.02%), VIX (+14.43%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +2.91%) and Utilities (XLU +0.06%) at the top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.87%) and Technology (XLK -3.05%) at the bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Worries rose this week over the Ukraine conflict's impact on inflation and driving a more hawkish response from the Fed. If you are not ok with the wild ride, hopefully, you are on the sidelines. The Nasdaq dropped -2.78% today. Volume was higher than Thursday while consistent selling throughout the day created an 83% red body. The 11% closing range put the index just below the 13,800 support area. There were more than two declining stocks for every advancing stock. Small-caps lost but held up better than the other indexes. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined -by 1.02%. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) were down -1.90% and -1.43% respectively. The VIX Volatility Index rose +14.43%. The sentiment index soared more than 50% intraday. The one sector benefiting from the Ukraine crisis is Energy (XLE +2.91%) which stands to profit from soaring energy prices. Only one other sector gained today, the defensive sector of Utilities (XLU +0.06%). The other nine S&P 500 sectors declined. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.87%) and Technology (XLK -3.05%) had the most significant losses. The Michigan Consumer Expectations and Consumer Sentiment numbers did not help with investors' worries. Consumer Sentiment was at 61.7 against a forecast of 67.5 and down from the previous month's number of 67.2. The US Dollar index (DXY) rose. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all dropped. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices dropped sharply (opposite of Treasury prices), while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices tracked along with Treasuries, rising today. Gold rose +1.75% to a new three-month high. Silver gained as well. Crude Oil Futures of course moved higher on the Ukraine worries. Other commodities were lower for the day. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.972. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in the Fear range. Note that the Put/Call Options component (which says Extreme Greed) of this index seems to have some bad data. If this component showed the real numbers, the overall index would likely be in Extreme Greed now. All of the big six mega-caps declined sharply. Tesla (TSLA) dropped -by 4.93%. Meta (FB) bounced off its 21d EMA and ended the day with a -3.74% decline. Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) also dropped below their 21d EMA. Alphabet (GOOG) and Microsoft (MSFT) are back below their 200d MA, dropping -3.13% and -2.43% today. The top three mega-caps for the day were all big Energy stocks. Exxon Mobile (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) both gained over 2%, while Royal Dutch Shell (SHEL) gained +1.27%. Recent gains for energy stocks helped Shell into the mega-cap category. The biggest loser in the mega-cap list was Nvidia (NVDA) with a -7.26% loss today. There were only three stocks that gained in the Daily Update Growth List. UP Fintech (TIGR) and FUTU Holdings (FUTU) were first and third, gaining +4.09% and +1.89%. Draft Kings (DKNG) was second in the list, rising +2.41% today. Cloudflare (NET) declined -by 9.52% to end up at the bottom of the list. The stock was up after hours yesterday thanks to a great earnings report and outlook, but the market is not able to stomach any risk right now so investors took profits. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The Fed Reserve announced a closed-door meeting for Monday under expedited procedures to discuss interest rates. An early hike of interest rates is very likely. Advanced Auto Parts (APP) and Avis (CAR) reports earnings on Monday evening. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index landed at the 13,800 support area which was prior resistance. It's not a strong support area yet, but we'll see how it goes. If the index heads back to the trend line from the 1/24 bottom, it would require a +4.63% gain on Monday. The five-day trend line points to a +2.79% for the start of the week. If the one-day trend continues, it would mean another -3.82% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Investors offloaded risk and moved into safe havens today as the Ukraine conflict continues to evolve. The safe-haven US Dollar rose compared to other currencies. Treasury bond prices rose (prices rise when yields drop). Riskier Corporate bond prices declined. And equities fell. As inflation is at its highest in 40 years, it looks like it could go even higher with the Ukraine conflict. The Fed will meet for an expedited procedure on Monday, likely to start raising interest rates. The expectation for Monday is Lower. Once the news clears from the Fed's expedited meeting, we'll have a better picture of where things head from there. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
GRT/BTC - The Graph: Resistance_Breakout_Confirmation◳◱ An impressive Resistance Breakout and Confirmation has been detected on the JSE:GRT / CRYPTOCAP:BTC chart. The price has surged above a key resistance level, accompanied by a compelling candle pattern, thereby signifying a promising bullish trend. Notable resistance levels can be pinpointed at 0.00000437 | 0.00000492 | 0.00000577, while substantial support zones are identifiable at 0.00000352 | 0.00000322 | 0.00000237. It is highly recommended to seize this opportunity by entering a trade within the present price range of 0.00000386 and setting sights on higher levels of profitability. ◰◲ General info : ▣ Name: The Graph ▣ Rank: 42 ▣ Exchanges: Binance, Huobipro, Bittrex, Kraken, Hitbtc ▣ Category/Sector: Infrastructure - Data Management ▣ Overview: The Graph is a protocol for indexing and querying data from blockchains, starting with Ethereum. Developers build applications with open APIs called subgraphs to easily access on-chain data that is indexed by a network of node operators. Subgraphs are open source so anyone can use the APIs to build decentralized applications. Many Ethereum applications have already built subgraphs and use them today including: Audius, Uniswap, Opyn, ENS, DAOstack, Synthetix, Moloch and more. ◰◲ Technical Metrics : ▣ Mrkt Price: 0.00000386 ₿ ▣ 24HVol: 3.114 ₿ ▣ 24H Chng: 2.387% ▣ 7-Days Chng: 1.60% ▣ 1-Month Chng: 19.41% ▣ 3-Months Chng: -27.30% ◲◰ Pivot Points - Levels : ◥ Resistance: 0.00000437 | 0.00000492 | 0.00000577 ◢ Support: 0.00000352 | 0.00000322 | 0.00000237 ◱◳ Indicators recommendation : ▣ Oscillators: BUY ▣ Moving Averages: STRONG_BUY ◰◲ Technical Indicators Summary : STRONG_BUY ◲◰ Sharpe Ratios : ▣ Last 30D: 2.58 ▣ Last 90D: -1.01 ▣ Last 1-Y: 0.77 ▣ Last 3-Y: 0.78 ◲◰ Volatility : ▣ Last 30D: 0.87 ▣ Last 90D: 0.78 ▣ Last 1-Y: 1.17 ▣ Last 3-Y: 1.74 ◳◰ Market Sentiment Index : ▣ News sentiment score is N/A ▣ Twitter sentiment score is 0.59 - Bullish ▣ Reddit sentiment score is 0.46 - Bearish ▣ In-depth GRTBTC technical analysis on Tradingview TA page ▣ What do you think of this analysis? Share your insights and let's discuss in the comments below. Your like, follow and support would be greatly appreciated! ◲ Disclaimer Please note that the information and publications provided are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, investment, trading, or any other type of advice or recommendation. We encourage you to conduct your own research and consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions. The use of the information provided is solely at your own risk. ▣ Welcome to the home of charting big: TradingView Benefit from a ton of financial analysis features, instruments and data. Have a look around, and if you do choose to go with an upgraded plan, you'll get up to $30. Discover it here - affiliate link -
by Crypto2AF
GRT/BTC - The Graph: Resistance_Breakout_Confirmation◳◱ A Resistance Breakout and Confirmation has been detected on the JSE:GRT / CRYPTOCAP:BTC chart. The price has broken above a key resistance level and has been confirmed by a strong candle, indicating a potential bullish trend. The next resistance key levels are located at 0.00000453 | 0.00000466 | 0.00000491, and the major support zones can be found at 0.00000428 | 0.00000416 | 0.00000391. Consider entering a trade at the current price zone of 0.00000464 and targeting higher levels. ◰◲ General info : ▣ Name: The Graph ▣ Rank: 42 ▣ Exchanges: Binance, Huobipro, Bittrex, Kraken, Hitbtc ▣ Category/Sector: Infrastructure - Data Management ▣ Overview: The Graph is a protocol for indexing and querying data from blockchains, starting with Ethereum. Developers build applications with open APIs called subgraphs to easily access on-chain data that is indexed by a network of node operators. Subgraphs are open source so anyone can use the APIs to build decentralized applications. Many Ethereum applications have already built subgraphs and use them today including: Audius, Uniswap, Opyn, ENS, DAOstack, Synthetix, Moloch and more. ◰◲ Technical Metrics : ▣ Mrkt Price: 0.00000464 ₿ ▣ 24HVol: 14.670 ₿ ▣ 24H Chng: 6.178% ▣ 7-Days Chng: 6.39% ▣ 1-Month Chng: -9.80% ▣ 3-Months Chng: -17.33% ◲◰ Pivot Points - Levels : ◥ Resistance: 0.00000453 | 0.00000466 | 0.00000491 ◢ Support: 0.00000428 | 0.00000416 | 0.00000391 ◱◳ Indicators recommendation : ▣ Oscillators: SELL ▣ Moving Averages: STRONG_BUY ◰◲ Technical Indicators Summary : BUY ◲◰ Sharpe Ratios : ▣ Last 30D: -1.58 ▣ Last 90D: -0.73 ▣ Last 1-Y: 0.45 ▣ Last 3-Y: 0.75 ◲◰ Volatility : ▣ Last 30D: 0.63 ▣ Last 90D: 0.84 ▣ Last 1-Y: 1.19 ▣ Last 3-Y: 1.77 ◳◰ Market Sentiment Index : ▣ News sentiment score is N/A ▣ Twitter sentiment score is 0.59 - Bullish ▣ Reddit sentiment score is 0.40 - Bearish ▣ In-depth GRTBTC technical analysis on Tradingview TA page ▣ What do you think of this analysis? Share your insights and let's discuss in the comments below. Your like, follow and support would be greatly appreciated! ◲ Disclaimer Please note that the information and publications provided are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, investment, trading, or any other type of advice or recommendation. We encourage you to conduct your own research and consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions. The use of the information provided is solely at your own risk. ▣ Welcome to the home of charting big: TradingView Benefit from a ton of financial analysis features, instruments and data. Have a look around, and if you do choose to go with an upgraded plan, you'll get up to $30. Discover it here - affiliate link -
by Crypto2AF
GOLD The Federal Reserve is likely to interpret the June 2025 University of Michigan (UoM) consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data as mixed but cautiously encouraging, with implications for monetary policy: Key Data Points Consumer Sentiment: 60.5 (vs. 53.5 forecast, prior 52.2) – a sharp rebound to the highest level since mid-2023. What is UoM consumer sentiment? The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI), often referred to as UoM Consumer Sentiment, is a widely followed monthly survey that measures how optimistic or pessimistic American consumers feel about the overall economy and their financial situation. Key Details: Purpose: It measures consumer attitudes toward current and future economic conditions, including personal finances, business conditions, and purchasing intentions. Since consumer spending accounts for about 68% of the U.S. economy, the index is a valuable leading indicator of economic activity. Methodology: The University of Michigan conducts telephone and web surveys of a representative sample of U.S. households (around 500–1000 respondents), asking about their financial health, short-term and long-term economic outlook, and expectations for inflation and interest rates. Components: Current Conditions Index — consumers’ assessment of the present economic situation. Consumer Expectations Index — consumers’ outlook for the economy over the next 6–12 months. Release Schedule: Preliminary data is released mid-month, with a final report at month-end. Significance: Reflects consumer confidence and spending intentions. Helps forecast economic growth and inflation trends. Influences financial markets and policy decisions. Summary The UoM Consumer Sentiment Index is a key measure of how confident consumers feel about the economy, which in turn signals their likely spending behavior and economic outlook. Higher sentiment typically suggests stronger consumer spending and economic growth, while lower sentiment indicates caution and potential economic slowdown. 1-Year Inflation Expectations: 5.1% (vs. 6.6% prior) – a significant decline, nearing pre-tariff levels. Fed Interpretation Improved Consumer Sentiment: The jump to 60.5 signals renewed optimism about the economy, likely driven by reduced trade tensions (e.g., tariff pauses) and stable labor markets. This aligns with recent upward revisions to April and May sentiment data. The Fed will view this as a sign of economic resilience, reducing the urgency for near-term rate cuts to stimulate growth. Sharply Lower Inflation Expectations: The drop to 5.1% (from 6.6%) aligns with the New York Fed’s May 2025 survey showing declining inflation expectations across all horizons. This suggests consumers are growing more confident that the Fed’s policies (and tariff adjustments) are curbing price pressures, easing fears of a wage-price spiral. Policy Implications: Dovish Tilt Supported: Lower inflation expectations reduce the risk of entrenched price pressures, giving the Fed flexibility to cut rates later in 2025 if growth slows. No Immediate Cuts Likely: Strong sentiment and a resilient labor market (unemployment at 4.2%) justify maintaining rates at 4.25–4.50% in July. Focus on Tariff Risks: The Fed will remain cautious about potential inflation rebounds from Trump’s tariffs, which could add 1.5% to prices by late 2025. Market Reactions DXY (Dollar Index): Likely to dip modestly as lower inflation expectations boost rate-cut bets, but sentiment-driven growth optimism may limit losses. Key support at 96.891 weekly floor will be watched. Bonds: 10-year yields may edge lower (toward 4.00%) on reduced inflation fears, though strong sentiment could cap declines. Equities: Stocks (especially consumer-discretionary sectors) may rally on the improved economic outlook. Conclusion The Fed will likely view this data as validating its cautious stance: inflation expectations are cooling, but strong sentiment and labor markets argue against premature easing. A September rate cut remains the base case, contingent on continued disinflation and no tariff-driven price spikes. (2)The Federal Reserve will interpret —Core PPI m/m: 0.1% (vs. 0.3% forecast, prior -0.2%), PPI m/m: 0.1% (vs. 0.2% forecast, prior -0.2%), and Unemployment Claims: 248K (vs. 242K forecast, prior 248K)—as further evidence of a cooling but not collapsing labor market and subdued inflation pressures. Fed’s Likely Interpretation 1. Producer Price Index (PPI) what is PPI? PPI stands for Producer Price Index. It is an economic indicator that measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Essentially, it tracks inflation at the wholesale or producer level, reflecting how prices for goods and services change before they reach consumers. Key points about PPI: Published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Measures price changes from the perspective of producers/sellers, unlike the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures prices from the consumer’s viewpoint. Includes thousands of indexes across industries and product categories, covering goods and some services. Used to forecast inflation trends and as a tool for contract escalations and economic analysis. Often considered a leading indicator of consumer inflation since producer prices tend to influence retail prices over time. In summary, the PPI helps gauge inflation pressures early in the production process before they Inflation Remains Subdued: Both headline and core PPI came in below expectations, confirming that producer-side inflation pressures remain mild. This follows a period of outright declines, indicating no broad-based resurgence in input costs. Tariff Pass-Through Still Limited: While the Fed is alert to potential tariff-driven inflation later in 2025, current PPI data shows businesses are not yet passing higher costs on to consumers in a meaningful way. 2. Unemployment Claims Labor Market Softening: Initial jobless claims held at 248K, above expectations and at an eight-month high. The four-week moving average also rose, and continuing claims increased to 1.956 million, marking the third consecutive weekly rise. This signals a gradual loosening of the labor market, with more people remaining unemployed for longer periods. No Immediate Crisis, But Trend Is Clear: The persistently high claims numbers are moving beyond seasonal noise and indicate a structural shift toward weaker hiring. 3. Policy Implications Supports Dovish Shift: The combination of softer producer inflation and a weakening labor market strengthens the case for the Fed to consider rate cuts later in 2025. No Immediate Rate Cut: The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged at its June meeting, but this data increases the likelihood of a cut by September, especially if upcoming CPI and labor data confirm these trends. Cautious Messaging: The Fed will remain cautious due to the risk of tariff-related inflation later in the year, but current data gives them more flexibility to pivot if growth and employment weaken further. Conclusion The Fed will see this data as validating a cautious, data-dependent approach: inflation is contained, and the labor market is softening. While no immediate rate cut is expected, the probability of a cut by September has increased, especially if disinflation and labor market weakness persist. (3)The Federal Reserve will likely interpret the May 2025 CPI data as signs of moderating inflation but with persistent underlying pressures, leading to a cautious but patient policy stance: What is cpi??? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a key economic indicator that measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a representative basket of goods and services. It reflects inflation as experienced by consumers in their day-to-day living expenses. Key Points about CPI: What it Measures: The CPI tracks price changes for a broad range of items including food and beverages, housing, apparel, transportation, medical care, recreation, education and communication, and other goods and services. Data Collection: The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) collects about 80,000 price quotes monthly from retail stores, service establishments, rental units, and doctors' offices. Purpose: It is widely used to monitor inflation, adjust income payments like Social Security, and guide monetary policy decisions by central banks. Calculation: CPI is a weighted average of prices, reflecting consumer spending patterns, and is updated periodically to account for changes in consumption habits. Inflation Indicator: The annual percentage change in CPI is a common measure of inflation, indicating how much prices have increased or decreased over a year. Summary CPI provides a snapshot of how much prices for everyday goods and services are rising or falling, helping policymakers, businesses, and consumers understand inflation trends and make informed decisions. The headline CPI rose 0.1% month-over-month, less than the 0.2% expected and down from April’s 0.2% increase, indicating a slowdown in price growth. The year-over-year CPI increased 2.4%, slightly above April’s 2.3%, but still close to the Fed’s 2% target, showing inflation is near but not fully anchored. The core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose 0.1% MoM, below the 0.3% forecast and April’s 0.2%, suggesting easing price pressures in most sectors except shelter and some services. Shelter costs rose 0.3% in May and remain a key driver of inflation, while energy prices declined 1.0%, helping to temper headline inflation. The Fed will note that tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have not yet significantly pushed up consumer prices, but remain a risk factor that could elevate inflation later in 2025. Labor market data remain resilient, with unemployment steady at 4.2% and moderate job growth, supporting economic strength but complicating the Fed’s inflation fight. Policy Implications: The Fed is expected to hold interest rates steady at 4.25–4.50% in its upcoming June meeting, maintaining a "wait-and-see" approach to assess how tariffs and inflation evolve. Markets have limited expectations of a rate cut this month but the price in a ~75% chance of a cut by September, contingent on further inflation easing and labor market developments. The Fed will remain cautious about premature easing given inflation’s stickiness in services and potential tariff pass-through, but the data support a gradual path toward rate cuts later in 2025 if disinflation continues. In summary: The Fed will see May’s CPI data as encouraging but not definitive evidence of inflation control, justifying a cautious hold on rates in June while preparing markets for possible easing later this year if inflation and labor data continue to improve. (4)The Federal Reserve will interpret the May 2025 labor market data—Non-Farm Employment Change of 139K (above the 126K forecast), Unemployment Rate steady at 4.2%, and Average Hourly Earnings up 0.4% MoM (above the 0.3% forecast)—as evidence of a resilient but slowing labor market, which supports a cautious approach to monetary policy. Detailed Interpretation: Employment Growth Slightly Above Expectations The addition of 139,000 jobs, exceeding the forecast of 126,000, indicates that job creation continues. Growth is uneven across sectors, with healthcare and leisure showing strength while government and trade-related sectors have seen declines, reflecting ongoing structural adjustments and policy uncertainties. Unchanged Unemployment Rate at 4.2% The stable unemployment rate suggests that the labor market remains relatively tight, consistent with "maximum employment" goals. However, underlying data show some signs of weakening, such as rising initial jobless claims in late May, which the Fed will monitor closely. Wage Growth Accelerates Slightly Average hourly earnings rose by 0.4% MoM, above expectations, signaling persistent wage pressures that can feed into inflation. Year-over-year wage growth ticked up to 3.9%, reinforcing concerns about labor cost-driven inflation. Overall Fed View The Fed sees the labor market as a relative bright spot amid broader economic uncertainties, including trade tensions and slowing GDP growth. The data suggest the economy is slowing but not collapsing, allowing the Fed to maintain a cautious, data-dependent stance. Given persistent wage growth and resilient employment, the Fed is likely to hold interest rates steady at the upcoming meetings but remains open to cuts later in 2025 if labor market softness intensifies and inflation continues to moderate. Conclusion The Fed will likely interpret this labor market report as supporting a steady policy stance in the near term, balancing ongoing inflation concerns from wage growth against signs of slowing employment gains. Rate cuts remain on the table for later in 2025, contingent on further labor market weakening and sustained inflation declines.. Summary of the three economic data leads the rate hold for now, but cut likely any time soon on the data approach. #gold #dollar
BLACKBULL:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
4
NASDAQ - Technology Leads Amid Challenges and OpportunitiesNASDAQ - Technology Leads Amid Challenges and Opportunities The NASDAQ index continues to capture investor interest, buoyed by the strength of technology and artificial intelligence (AI) stocks, while navigating regulatory, economic, and geopolitical hurdles. The latest macroeconomic updates and Federal Reserve signals add further dimensions to the narrative shaping the index’s performance. Here’s an expanded analysis, incorporating fresh data and insights. --- Key Macroeconomic Updates Influencing NASDAQ Inflation and Sentiment - University of Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations: Actual 2.9% (Forecast 2.7%, Previous 2.6%) This slight increase in inflation expectations signals that consumer inflation concerns remain elevated, despite Federal Reserve efforts. Persistent inflationary pressure could temper optimism around rate cuts. - University of Michigan Sentiment Index: Actual 74.0 (Forecast 73.2, Previous 71.8) The stronger-than-expected sentiment reading reflects consumer confidence in economic resilience, which could support continued spending on technology and digital services, bolstering the NASDAQ index. Labor Market Insights - US Unemployment Rate: Actual 4.2% (Forecast 4.1%, Previous 4.1%) A modest uptick in the unemployment rate suggests a cooling labor market, potentially reinforcing the case for monetary easing. - US Nonfarm Payrolls: Actual 227k (Forecast 220k, Previous 12k, Revised 36k) Strong job growth underscores economic stability but adds complexity to the Federal Reserve's inflation battle. - US Average Earnings YoY: Actual 4.0% (Forecast 3.9%, Previous 4.0%) Wage growth remains steady, indicating ongoing consumer spending power but also signaling potential inflationary pressures. Federal Reserve Dynamics - Fed's Bowman: Progress on inflation seems to have stalled. This commentary reinforces market expectations of a more accommodative monetary stance to counter economic headwinds. - Short-Term Interest Rate Futures: A sharp rise post-jobs report indicates an 85% chance of a rate cut in December, up from 67%. Lower borrowing costs would directly benefit the tech-heavy NASDAQ, as growth stocks typically outperform in low-rate environments. --- Seasonal and Sentiment Factors Historical Seasonality December has historically been favorable for the NASDAQ, driven by: - **Seasonal Consumer Spending:** Electronics and digital services see a surge, supporting revenue for tech companies. - **Portfolio Rebalancing:** Institutional investors often position portfolios for growth into the new year. - **Optimism Around Innovation:** End-of-year announcements and advancements in technology further fuel investor enthusiasm. Investor Sentiment - The **Fear & Greed Index** remains at 53, leaning toward greed, signaling potential for continued short-term market gains. --- Revised NASDAQ Outlook Positives: 1. **Tech Momentum:** The AI-driven rally continues, with companies like Microsoft and Meta capitalizing on innovation and demand. 2. **Federal Reserve Support:** Increasing odds of rate cuts and gradual disinflation expectations create a favorable macro backdrop. 3. **Resilient Economic Indicators:** Strong labor market and durable goods data point to economic stability. Risks: 1. **Regulatory Headwinds:** Scrutiny over AI and antitrust issues may weigh on tech giants like Microsoft and Meta. 2. **Inflation Uncertainty:** Stalled progress on disinflation could delay aggressive monetary easing. 3. **Geopolitical Tensions:** Ongoing global supply chain disruptions pose risks to the tech sector. Conclusion The NASDAQ index is well-positioned to close the year on a strong note, underpinned by robust demand for technology, favorable monetary conditions, and consumer confidence. However, vigilance is essential as regulatory, geopolitical, and inflation-related risks remain prevalent. Key developments, including Federal Reserve decisions and corporate earnings, will be pivotal in shaping the index's trajectory into 2024.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by InvestMate
NASDAQ - Technology Leads Amid Challenges and OpportunitiesNASDAQ - Technology Leads Amid Challenges and Opportunities The NASDAQ index continues to capture investor interest, buoyed by the strength of technology and artificial intelligence (AI) stocks, while navigating regulatory, economic, and geopolitical hurdles. The latest macroeconomic updates and Federal Reserve signals add further dimensions to the narrative shaping the index’s performance. Here’s an expanded analysis, incorporating fresh data and insights. --- Key Macroeconomic Updates Influencing NASDAQ Inflation and Sentiment - University of Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations: Actual 2.9% (Forecast 2.7%, Previous 2.6%) This slight increase in inflation expectations signals that consumer inflation concerns remain elevated, despite Federal Reserve efforts. Persistent inflationary pressure could temper optimism around rate cuts. - University of Michigan Sentiment Index: Actual 74.0 (Forecast 73.2, Previous 71.8) The stronger-than-expected sentiment reading reflects consumer confidence in economic resilience, which could support continued spending on technology and digital services, bolstering the NASDAQ index. Labor Market Insights - US Unemployment Rate: Actual 4.2% (Forecast 4.1%, Previous 4.1%) A modest uptick in the unemployment rate suggests a cooling labor market, potentially reinforcing the case for monetary easing. - US Nonfarm Payrolls: Actual 227k (Forecast 220k, Previous 12k, Revised 36k) Strong job growth underscores economic stability but adds complexity to the Federal Reserve's inflation battle. - US Average Earnings YoY: Actual 4.0% (Forecast 3.9%, Previous 4.0%) Wage growth remains steady, indicating ongoing consumer spending power but also signaling potential inflationary pressures. Federal Reserve Dynamics - Fed's Bowman: Progress on inflation seems to have stalled. This commentary reinforces market expectations of a more accommodative monetary stance to counter economic headwinds. - Short-Term Interest Rate Futures: A sharp rise post-jobs report indicates an 85% chance of a rate cut in December, up from 67%. Lower borrowing costs would directly benefit the tech-heavy NASDAQ, as growth stocks typically outperform in low-rate environments. --- Seasonal and Sentiment Factors Historical Seasonality December has historically been favorable for the NASDAQ, driven by: - **Seasonal Consumer Spending:** Electronics and digital services see a surge, supporting revenue for tech companies. - **Portfolio Rebalancing:** Institutional investors often position portfolios for growth into the new year. - **Optimism Around Innovation:** End-of-year announcements and advancements in technology further fuel investor enthusiasm. Investor Sentiment - The **Fear & Greed Index** remains at 55, leaning toward greed, signaling potential for continued short-term market gains. --- Revised NASDAQ Outlook Positives: 1. **Tech Momentum:** The AI-driven rally continues, with companies like Microsoft and Meta capitalizing on innovation and demand. 2. **Federal Reserve Support:** Increasing odds of rate cuts and gradual disinflation expectations create a favorable macro backdrop. 3. **Resilient Economic Indicators:** Strong labor market and durable goods data point to economic stability. Risks: 1. **Regulatory Headwinds:** Scrutiny over AI and antitrust issues may weigh on tech giants like Microsoft and Meta. 2. **Inflation Uncertainty:** Stalled progress on disinflation could delay aggressive monetary easing. 3. **Geopolitical Tensions:** Ongoing global supply chain disruptions pose risks to the tech sector. Conclusion The NASDAQ index is well-positioned to close the year on a strong note, underpinned by robust demand for technology, favorable monetary conditions, and consumer confidence. However, vigilance is essential as regulatory, geopolitical, and inflation-related risks remain prevalent. Key developments, including Federal Reserve decisions and corporate earnings, will be pivotal in shaping the index's trajectory into 2024.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by InvestMate
GOLD 29/6/2023Powell continues to maintain a hawkish stance and reiterates the possibility of two interest rate hikes this year. This week, the market is waiting for the most important and preferred inflation indicator, the PCE index. I. SPDR Fund : Bought 1.15 trillion on June 28th. II. Macroeconomic and Intermarket News: According to CME, on June 27th, 25.6% predict no change in interest rates and 74.4% predict a 0.25% increase in the July meeting. On June 29th, the predictions are 20.6% for no change and 79.4% for a 0.25% increase in the July meeting. Bond Market: Money flow indicates optimism. Junk bonds have increased significantly, while long-term government bonds have slightly risen in interest rates. Equity Market: Big tech companies are maintaining momentum in the market. The SPX and DJ indices have seen slight decreases, while NASDAQ and RUSELL have increased. Government Bond Yields: The 2-year yield has decreased significantly, and the 10-year yield has also decreased. The yield curve has improved, but the slope is steep. ECB's President Lagarde: Exchange rates will be maintained at a high level for as long as necessary. The ECB is committed to achieving the inflation target. BoE's Dhingra: Wages are responding to inflation with a lag. There are prospects for a significant decrease in the Producer Price Index (PPI). ECB's De Guindos: The interest rate hike in July has been decided, and the decision for September will depend on the data. ECB's Vujcic: There is no reason to say what we will do in September. There is a good chance for an interest rate hike in September, but persistent inflation may lead to no pause in September. Masato Kanda, Japan's Vice Minister of Finance, stated that authorities will intervene if the foreign exchange market becomes uncontrollable. This statement caused the USD/JPY to initially drop below 144 but stabilized later on. ECB's Lagarde: If the baseline holds firm, we may increase rates in July. Currently, I'm not considering a pause. FED's Powell: We believe there will be more constraints due to labor market pressures. Most policymakers expect two more interest rate hikes this year. We haven't made a decision on raising rates in the next meeting. We won't miss an opportunity to act in subsequent meetings. There is no reason to change the pace of balance sheet adjustment right now. I'm not forecasting that we'll get back to 2% inflation this year or next year; I see us making progress. BoE Bailey: The data shows a clear presence of inflation. We will do what is necessary. It would be a bad outcome if we don't bring inflation back to target. BOJ Governor: The core inflation is still below 2%. We are closely monitoring the JPY situation, but it's under the authority of the Ministry of Finance. Wage inflation is currently at around 2%. The JPY is influenced by various factors, including policies of other central banks. II. Economic News Schedule: Thursday: 13:30: FED Chairman's speech. 19:30: Real Income. Q1 GDP third revision. 21:00: Pending Home Sales. III. Technical Analysis: OMXSTO:INDEX : Increased by 45 pips compared to the open price, with an 80% bullish candle. Gold: Decreased by 66 pips compared to the open price, with a 70% bearish candle. Sentiment Index: risk off fxbook ratio: Short 30% Long 70% Oil: rebounding EIA Crude Oil Inventories: Actual: -9.603m Expectation: -1.5m Previous: -3.831m IV. Analysis and Strategy: Analysis: Powell continues to maintain a hawkish stance and reiterates the possibility of two interest rate hikes this year. This week, the most important and Fed-preferred indicator to watch for is the PCE index. Strategy: Sell Gold 1910-1913 SL 1920-1922 TP 1903-1900-1897-1894 It is not recommended to trade during major news releases or important economic indicators. Trading always carries inherent risks, and the information provided is for reference only. Individuals should take responsibility for their own trading decisions. Wishing you successful trading! LONGE TRADER
TVC:GOLD
by longelectric
SPX Daily TA Cautiously BearishSPXUSD daily guidance is cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 35% SPX, 65% Cash. * BOUNCE WATCH . It's volatile week with investors preparing for another FFR hike (12/14) that is widely expected to be 50bps (with a chance at 75bps) as China continues to formally lax their Covid-Zero restrictions in major cities like Beijing where people with a negative PCR test result are now allowed to congregate in certain public places . This has investors torn over a China reopening rally and more flight from Risk-On assets to DXY and US Treasurys with further FFR hikes. Russia continues to bombard Ukrainian energy infrastructure as Russia prepares to ban the sale of Russian oil to buyers participating in the new $60 price cap imposed by the G7 yesterday . In the coming years it would be reasonable to expect more of a push toward renewables like Solar energy in response to the geopolitical factors that are causing oil prices to be unsustainably volatile. VIX, Metals, Agriculture, NI225, GBPUSD, EURUSD and JPYUSD are up. DXY, US Treasurys, US Equities, US Equity Futures, Cryptos (mixed), Energy, CNYUSD and N100 are down. Key Upcoming Dates: US November PPI 830am EST 12/09; US November CPI 830am EST 12/13; Last FOMC Rate Hike Announcement of 2022 at 2pm EST 12/14; US November New Residential Construction at 830am EST 12/20; US Final Q3 GDP Estimate at 830am EST 12/22; US November PCE Index at 830am EST 12/23; UofM Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 12/23 .* Price is currently trending down at $3954 as it approaches a $3913 minor support after being rejected by the 200MA (~$4058 minor resistance). Volume is currently Low (moderate) and on track to favor sellers for a second consecutive session if it closes today's session in the red. The VP Point of Control is at $3913 minor support. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $4102, this margin is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 50 as it tests 52.68 support, the next support is the uptrend line from January 2022 at ~46. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently trending down at 28, the next support is at 17. MACD crossed over bearish in today's session and is currently trending down at 48 as it risks losing 55.35 minor support if it breaks down further. ADX is currently trending down at 18.53 as Price is also trending down, this is neutral at the moment. If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely retest the 200MA at ~$4040 as resistance before potentially retesting $4058 minor resistance . However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely retest $3913 minor support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close above) $4040 .
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
1
DXY Daily TA Cautiously BearishDXY Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 25% DXY, 75% Cash. * US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen was interviewed by NBC and explained that due to strong consumer demand, credit quality and employment, the widely anticipated two consecutive quarters of negative GDP would not constitute a recession. She is essentially the White House mouthpiece for the state of the economy and is saying that a healthy labor market and a strong consumer (she's referring to growing retail sales, positive GDI growth and "healthy" consumer credit) are currently saving the US from an economic recession. The Consumer Confidence Index (the leading gauge of US consumer confidence) is scheduled to report tomorrow (07/26) at 10am (EST), it has fallen for the past two months and is now at the lowest level since February 2021. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is currently projecting a rise in confidence from June to July and is scheduled to report at 10am (EST) on 07/29. With increases in layoffs and announced slowdowns in hiring I'm legit curious to know how the Employment Situation looks on 08/05; both the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury Department are notorious for relying upon lagging data, time will tell if this is one of those cases. With regards to the DXY there are two bullish catalysts at work here: 1) continued geopolitical turmoil and the resulting supply chain disruptions (leading to food and energy shortages) are pushing investors to US treasuries and 2) increases to FFR spillover into increases to overall economic rates, which typically push those looking for higher rates of return to dollar-denominated assets which in return pushes DXY higher. The current consensus on the EOY FFR from both money markets and FOMC members is around 3.25-3.5%, we are currently at 1.5%-1.75% (effective is currently 1.58%). That said, if the projected increases in FFR are to in fact take place AND the global geopolitical/supply chain situation continues to worsen, it would be reasonable to see DXY at 2000-2002 levels (~$120). Reminder that there was a "technical" US recession from March 2001 to November 2001.* Price is continuing to trend down at ~$106.50 after being rejected by $108 resistance; it is also forming a Bull Flag and may attempt to retest $108 resistance in the near term. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $108.57, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 52 and is beginning to form a soft trough after getting rejected by 59 resistance; the next support is the uptrend line from July 2020 at ~45. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently forming a trough as it attempts to cross over bullish at max bottom. MACD remains bearish and is currently testing 0.65 support with no sign of trough formation. ADX is currently trending down at 34 with no sign of trough formation as Price continues seeing selling pressure, this is mildly bearish at the moment. If Price is able to bounce here at ~$106.50 then it will likely retest $108 resistance . However, if Price continues to break down, it will likely retest the 50 MA (for the first time since May) at ~$105 . Mental Stop Loss: (one close above) $108.
TVC:DXY
by dailytaguy
XAL/USD "ALUMINIUM" Metal Market Heist Plan on Bullish🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰 Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the XAL/USD "ALUMINIUM" Metal market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is the high-risk Red Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : Traders & Thieves with New Entry A bull trade can be initiated at any price level. However I advise placing Buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in retest. Stop Loss 🛑: Using the 2H period, the recent / nearest low or high level. Goal 🎯: 2750.000 (or) Escape Before the Target Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰. Fundamental & Macro Outlook 📰🗞️ Based on the fundamental & macro analysis, I would expecting a bullish outlook for XAL/USD (Aluminum) Demand and Supply: Aluminum demand has been rising due to its increasing use in the automotive, construction, and packaging industries. However, supply has also been growing, mainly driven by China's production. Inventory Levels: Global aluminum inventories have been declining, which could support prices. Production Costs: Aluminum production costs have been rising due to increasing energy costs, particularly in China. Trade Tensions: Trade tensions between the US and China have been impacting aluminum prices, as China is a significant producer and consumer of aluminum. Macro Analysis--- Global Economy: The global economy has been slowing down, which could negatively impact aluminum demand. Interest Rates: Low interest rates in major economies could support aluminum prices by increasing demand for commodities. Commodity Prices: Other commodity prices, such as copper and zinc, have been rising, which could support aluminum prices. Currency: The US dollar has been appreciating, which could negatively impact aluminum prices. Sentiment Metrics--- Sentiment Score: 0.15 (neutral) Bullish Sentiment Index: 45 (out of 100) Bearish Sentiment Index: 30 (out of 100) Neutral Sentiment Index: 25 (out of 100) Insights: The overall sentiment is neutral, indicating that market participants are uncertain about the future direction of aluminum prices. The bullish sentiment is slightly higher than the bearish sentiment, suggesting that some market participants are optimistic about aluminum prices. The neutral sentiment is significant, indicating that many market participants are waiting for clearer market signals before making a decision. Recommendation--- Based on the sentiment analysis, it's recommended to adopt a neutral stance on XAL/USD, with a slight bias towards a bullish trend. However, it's essential to continue monitoring market developments and adjust your strategy accordingly. Disclaimer---Sentiment analysis is subjective and based on publicly available data. It should not be considered as investment advice. Trading commodities involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your investment. Always do your own research and consider multiple sources before making a trade. Trading Alert⚠️ : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏 As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions. Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly. 💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🫂
PEPPERSTONE:ALUMINIUMLong
by The-Thief
Macro Monday 39 - Euro Area Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI)Macro Monday 39 Euro Area Economic Sentiment Indicator (Next Release is this Wednesday 27th March 2024) Last week we covered the the Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (the "ZEW Index") and learned that the sentiment data for the ZEW Index comes from 350 economists spanning the Euro Area (20 of the 27 EU member states that use the Euro currency). The ZEW Index attempts to provide a sentiment lead with economists factoring in their 6 month forward projections into the sentiment data. This week we look at a different more current sentiment indicator, the Euro Area Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI). The data for the ESI is derived from the businesses and consumers of all 27 EU Member States. The ESI therefore has a larger data set to the 20 countries covered in the ZEW Index. The ESI is closer to the truth of what businesses and consumers are currently experiencing on the ground across Europe. The ESI is not forward looking like the ZEW index, the ESI should be considered a coincident indicator presenting the current state of economic sentiment among businesses and consumers across the EU. In any event we can still use the ESI data and the chart to identify trends and to know where sentiment stands when it is released each month. Interestingly, at present the ESI figure is more negative than the ZEW Index. The ZEW is in positive sentiment territory (forward looking) whilst the ESI is firmly in negative sentiment territory (current outlook). Based on each data sets objective, you would think that the ESI would move into positive territory over the coming 6 months based on the forward looking positive ZEW Index. No guarantees of course. We can watch this as it plays out in real time and see if the ESI follows the ZEW Index. Lets have a closer look at the ESI The Euro Area Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) is a measure created by the European Commission to gauge economic confidence across the Euro Area. The survey data for the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) is initially collected at the national level for each country within the Euro Area. These individual country results are then aggregated to create the overall ESI, which reflects the economic sentiment for the entire EU (all 27 countries). The data is also seasonally adjusted to account for regular seasonal variations and provide a clearer picture of the underlying economic trends. The data is derived from survey responses from the following economic sectors in each country (with weightings); 1. Industry (40%) 2. Services (30%) 3. Consumers (20%) 4. Retail (5%) 5. Construction (5%) Balances are constructed as the difference between the percentages of respondents giving positive and negative replies. The ESI data is scaled to a long-term average of 100 with a standard deviation of 10. This means that the average sentiment over time is set at 100. As the ESI’s scale centers around a mean of 100 values above this suggest higher-than-average confidence, while those below indicate lower confidence. It’s seasonally adjusted to reflect consistent economic trends. The Chart (above subject chart) The chart follows the structure discussed above and we have split the chart by color as follows: >100 = Above Average Economic Sentiment🟢Green <100 = Above Average Economic Sentiment🔴 Red ▫️ As you can see on the chart we made a record low in pessimism in May 2020 at 58.7 which was closely followed by a record high in optimism in Oct 2021 at 119.5. ▫️ The chart has arrows that are 17pts in length. You will see the arrows across the chart whereby if there was a greater than 17pt drop from the green zone into red the red zone, this historically has coincided with recession ▫️ The most recent drop from🟢119.5 in Oct 2021 to 🔴93.9 in Oct 2023 is a drop of 25.6pts, greater than the 17pt typical recession drop. "This time might be different" may actually apply because we had all time highs in sentiment in Oct 2021, however that does not detract from the fact we are currently firmly in negative economic sentiment sub 100 at 95.4. ▫️ You can see that any time we have fallen below the 85 level (red dotted line) we have confirmed a recession. This does not mean that you need a sub 84 reading for a recession, only that when this has occurred in the past, it only occurred during some of the deeper recessions. A quick note on the Euro Area terminology as this was bugging me as the ESI covers all 27 EU member states Euro Area Terminology? The term “Euro Area Economic Sentiment Indicator” can be somewhat misleading because the ESI indeed covers all 27 EU Member States, not just those in the 20 in the Euro Area or Eurozone. The name likely persists because the ESI is particularly significant for the Euro Area, where economic policies are closely aligned and the shared currency means that economic sentiment has direct implications for monetary policy. However, the ESI’s broader EU-wide scope allows for a comprehensive view of economic sentiment across the entire European Union, which is valuable for comparative analysis and policy-making at the EU level. Thank for coming along again, if you like the content and find it informative please let me know PUKA
ECONOMICS:EUEOI
by PukaCharts
2
GOLD 27/6/2023 SPDR CONTINUES SELLING, IMPORTANT ECONOMIC NEWS TO BE ANNOUNCED TONIGHT!!! I. SPDR Fund: Sold $1.44T on June 26th. II. Macro and Intermarket News: According to CME: On June 26th, a prediction of 28.1% for keeping interest rates unchanged and 71.9% for a 0.25% increase in the July meeting. On June 27th, a prediction of 25.6% for keeping interest rates unchanged and 74.4% for a 0.25% increase in the July meeting. Bond Market: Money flow stable. Junk bonds: Around the reference level. High-yield government bonds: Slight decrease in interest rates. Equity Market: Tech megacap stocks decline. SPX: Slight decrease. DJ: Slight decrease. NASDAQ: Sharp decline. RUSSELL: Around the reference level. Government bond yields: 2-year term: Slight increase. 10-year term: Slight increase. Yield Curve: Very steep. FED's Williams: Restoring price stability is of utmost importance. Japanese Vice Minister of Finance for International Affairs, Masato Kanda, stated that Japan does not rule out any options in dealing with the weakening yen. III. Economic Indicator News: Tuesday: 15:30: MPC member speech and ECB member speech. 16:30: ECB member speech. 19:00: Building permits and ECB member speech. 19:30: Durable goods orders and core orders. 20:00: House price index. 21:00: Consumer confidence. New home sales. Richmond manufacturing index. IV. Technical Analysis: OMXSTO:INDEX : 12-pip decrease from the opening price, 50% bearish candle. Gold: 30-pip increase from the opening price, 10% bullish candle. Sentiment index: Risk-on. FXbook ratio: Short 43%, Long 57%. Oil: Around the reference level. Opinion and Strategy: Opinion: Last Monday was marked by an absence of significant information, but some tech megacap stocks, including Tesla, continued their downward trend. Tonight, there will be important economic news announcements. Strategy: Sell Gold 1926-1928 Take profit at 1920-1918-1911-1907. It is not recommended to trade during strong news releases or important economic indicators. Trading always carries risks, and the provided information is for reference purposes only. Traders should take responsibility for their own trading decisions. Wishing you successful trading! LONGE TRADER
TVC:GOLD
by longelectric
GOLD 26/6/2023 SPDR CONTINUES TO SELL OFF!!!! I. SPDR Fund: Sold 2.6 trillion on June 23rd. II. Macroeconomic and Intermarket News: According to CME: On June 23rd, there is a 24.4% prediction of keeping interest rates unchanged and a 75.6% prediction of a 0.25% increase in the July meeting. On June 26th, there is a 28.1% prediction of keeping interest rates unchanged and a 71.9% prediction of a 0.25% increase in the July meeting. Bond Market: Money continues to flow out gradually. Junk bonds: Continue to decrease. High-yield government bonds: Decrease. Equity Market: Money adjusts at the end of the week. SPX: Slight decrease. DJ: Slight decrease. NASDAQ: Decrease. RUSELL: Sharp decrease. Government Bond Yields: 2-year term: Sharp decrease. 10-year term: Sharp decrease. Yield Curve: Continued high spread. EU Manufacturing PMI decreased to 43.6 from the previous 44.8. EU Services PMI decreased to 52.4 from the previous 55.1. UK Manufacturing PMI decreased to 46.2 from the previous 47.1. UK Services PMI decreased to 53.7 from the previous 55.2. Overall PMI decreased to 46.3 from the previous 48.4. Overall Services PMI decreased to 54.1 from the previous 54.9. Fed's Bostic: Fed is trying to bring the economy back to a balanced supply-demand state. High inflation is a top concern, and lowering it is our top priority. I expect unemployment rates to increase from historically low levels. *I support not raising interest rates for the remainder of the year. Fed's Daly: I remain cautious about the possibility of further tightening, which is a legitimate reason to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes. Predicting two more interest rate hikes this year is highly reasonable. I fully support the decision to keep interest rates unchanged and monitor data in June. II. Economic News and Indicators: Monday: No information available. Tuesday: 15:30: MPC member speech and ECB member speech. 16:30: ECB member speech. 19:00: Construction permits and ECB member speech. 19:30: Durable goods orders and core orders. 20:00: House price index. 21:00: CB consumer confidence, new home sales, Richmond manufacturing index. Wednesday: 17:30: MPC member speech. 19:30: Retail sales excluding autos, wholesale inventories. 20:30: BOE Chairman and Fed Chairman speech. 22:00: ECB Chairman speech. Thursday: 13:30: Fed Chairman speech. 19:30: Personal income. Revised Q1 GDP. 21:00: Pending home sales. Friday: 8:30: Manufacturing PMI, services PMI, and composite PMI from China. 13:00: Revised Q1 GDP for the UK. 13:30: Swiss retail sales. 16:00: CPI and core CPI from the EU, unemployment rate. 19:30: PCE and core PCE, personal income and expenditure. 20:35: Chicago PMI. 21:00: University of Michigan consumer sentiment. III. Technical Analysis: OMXSTO:INDEX : Increased by 50 pips from the opening price, with a 70% bullish candle. Weekly candle increased by 55 pips from the opening price, with a 60% bullish candle. Gold: Increased by 100 pips from the opening price, with a 40% bullish candle. Weekly candle decreased by 370 pips from the opening price, with an 80% bearish candle. Sentiment index: Risk-on towards the end of the day. Ratio according to fxbook: Short 45%, Long 55%. Oil: Trading around the reference price, with minimal volatility. IV. Analysis and Strategy: Analysis: The FED maintains its plan on the economic policy interest rate. Observing economic indicators and statements this week to confirm the next direction for July. Strategy: Sell Gold 1926-1930 SL 1940 TP 1920-1918-1911 It is not recommended to trade during major news releases or important economic indicators. Trading always carries risks, and the provided information is for reference only. Traders should take responsibility for their own trading decisions. Wishing you successful trading! LONGE TRADER
TVC:GOLD
by longelectric
SPX Daily TA Cautiously BearishSPXUSD Daily guidance is cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 30% SPX, 70% Cash. *Equities, Futures, Cryptos, Metals, Energy, GBPUSD, and EURUSD are all down while DXY, US Treasuries and VIX are up once again. Fears of nuclear war being exacerbated by resolute threats from Putin and desperate social media pleas by people like Elon Musk are pushing investors toward DXY and US Treasury notes and bonds and away from Risk-On assets. The US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) ordered $300m worth of Nplate (a radiation sickness drug) as part of an ongoing long term defense plan against the threat of nuclear warfare . It's hard not to think that the timing of acquiring this medication vs chemical, biological or infectious disease medication isn't coincidental; but the HHS said it was just a routine purchase as part of a longer term plan. In the short to medium term it's reasonable to expect more supply chain disruptions as a result of Russia's war with Ukraine worsening rather than improving. OPEC+ cutting oil production heading into the European winter is another factor that contributes to the seemingly inevitable decline into a global recession. Key Upcoming Dates: FOMC Minutes at 2pm EST 10/12; September US CPI at 830am EST 10/13; September US Retails Sales at 830am EST 10/14; 18th GDPNow US Q3 GDP Estimate 10/14; UofM October Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 10/15.* Price is currently trending down at ~$3615 and is still technically testing both $3658 minor support + the minor descending trendline from July 2021 at ~$3635 as support, if it breaks below then the next support (minor) is at $3617. Volume is currently Moderate (high) and on track to favor sellers for a third consecutive session if it can close today's session in the red. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $3805, this margin is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down slightly at 36 and is still technically testing 38 support, if it loses this level then the next support is at the uptrend line from August 2015 at ~32. Stochastic is currently bearish for the second consecutive session and is trending down at 63 as it approaches 48 support. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending down at -85 after being rejected at the uptrend line from March 2020 as resistance at ~-83; if it breaks below -87 it would be a bearish crossover. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 28 as Price is falling, this is bearish at the moment. If Price is able to bounce here at the minor descending trendline from July 2021 (~$3635) then it will have to close above $3658 minor support if it's going to retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3800 as resistance . However, if Price continues to breakdown here, it will likely test $3517 minor support for the first time since November 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $3658.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
SPX Daily TA Neutral BearishSPXUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 40% SPX, 60% Cash. * BOUNCE WATCH . The Employment Situation was released this morning and 263k nonfarm workers were added to the economy in September while Unemployment edged back down to 3.5% from 3.7% in August. The 17th GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate came in at 2.9% today compared to 2.7% on 10/05 . Cleveland Fed President Mester tried to warn us of rising Unemployment yesterday and it came down today instead, maybe the Federal Reserve is hiring thousands of nonfarm workers to get together and figure out how to bring down inflation. NY Fed President Williams said today that he envisions another aggressive rate hike in November (likely 75bps) and that he too sees a slowdown in job markets in 2023 accompanied by higher interest rates and lower inflation . In response to the oil production cut by OPEC+, The White House Admin tapped into the SPR yet again, bringing its total emergency oil reserves down to the lowest they've been in forty years . With midterm elections coming up in the USA, it's hard not to see this move by the White House as politically motivated. Key Upcoming Dates: FOMC Minutes at 2pm EST 10/12; September US CPI at 830am EST 10/13; September US Retails Sales at 830am EST 10/14; 18th GDPNow US Q3 GDP Estimate 10/14; UofM October Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 10/15.* Price is currently testing $3658 minor support + the weak descending trendline from July 2021 at ~$3633 as support after being rejected by the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3800. Volume remains High (low) and has favored sellers in the past two sessions. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3605, this margin is bearish at the moment. RSI is currently testing 38 support after breaking below the uptrend line from January 2022 at ~41. Stochastic crossed over bearish today and is trending down at 78 as it approaches 76.29 support with no signs of trough formation. MACD is currently trending down at -81 after being rejected by -76.22 minor resistance and is on the verge of crossing over bearish if it gets below -86; it's still technically testing the uptrend line from March 2020 at ~-80 as support. ADX is currently completing a trough and beginning to trend up slightly at 28 as Price is rejected by the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3800. If Price is able to bounce here at the weak descending trendline from July 2021 (~$3633) then it will have to close above $3658 minor support in order to be able to retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3800 as resistance . However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely test $3517 minor support for the first time since November 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $3658.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
4
SPX Daily TA Cautiously BullishSPXUSD daily guidance is cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 65% SPX, 35% Cash. * S&P September US PMI came in at 52 compared to 51.5 and beating the consensus estimate of 51.8. Though marginal, September PMI increasing as DXY continues to go up and inflation remains high implies that the demand outlook improved slightly since August, which is odd considering that many central banks continue to raise key interest rates around the world. The best explanation thus far is that reopening effects are still at play. Rumors of a Russian nuclear weapons convoy and the world's largest submarine with nuclear weapon capabilities being on the move broke earlier today . Key Upcoming Dates: FOMC Member Loretta Mester speaks twice on 10/06; September US Employment Situation at 830am EST 10/07; FOMC Members Kashkari, Waller and Williams speak on 10/07; FOMC Minutes at 2pm EST 10/12; September US CPI at 830am EST 10/13; September US Retails Sales at 830am EST 10/14; UofM October Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 10/15.* Price is currently continuing to test $3658 minor support for what is now the seventh consecutive session and managed to close back above it in today's session. Volume is High (low) and broke a two day streak of seller dominance by favoring buyers in today's session; Price is currently trading in the fourth largest supply/demand zone. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $3728, this is bullish at the moment. RSI is currently testing 38.06 resistance after bouncing off the uptrend line from August 2015 at ~33 (this is bullish), if it breaks above it will likely test the uptrend line from January 2022 at ~41 as resistance. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at 32 but is still technically testing 18.22 resistance; the next resistance is at 48. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending up at -108 after forming a trough at -110, although it's still technically testing the uptrend line from March 2020 at ~-83 it would have to break above ~-91 to crossover bullish. ADX is currently beginning to form a soft peak at 31 as Price is seeing buying pressure, this is mildly bullish at the moment as it signifies a potential trend change. If Price is able to close above $3658 minor support for a second consecutive session then it will likely test the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3800 as resistance . However, if Price breaks back down below $3658 minor support , it will likely retest $3517 minor support for the first time since November 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $3658.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy